Liquidity & Technical

Figures converted from TWD at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, percentages, and technical indicators (RSI, MACD, vol percentile, beta) are unitless and unchanged.

Liquidity & Technical

Auras trades like a high-velocity AI-thematic mid-cap: $203M daily turnover on a $3.4B float means a fund can build or unwind a meaningful position in a week, but execution is anything but quiet — the median day swings 5.4% and realized volatility sits in the top decile of its 5-year history. The tape is neutral-to-cautious: price is +16% above its 200-day and the long-trend is intact, but momentum has rolled over (MACD histogram flipped negative again in May), and the stock has surrendered roughly 18% from the $45.7 all-time high made within the last 12 months.

Portfolio implementation verdict

Price snapshot

Price history with 50/200-day moving averages

Price is currently above its 200-day moving average (+16.0%) and above its 50-day (+2.6%). On a multi-year basis the trend is undeniably up — Auras has compounded ~13x off 2018 lows on the back of the AI/server liquid-cooling thesis. But the last six months have been choppy: a parabolic September–October 2025 push to $45.7 was followed by a 33% drawdown to $30.8 in March 2026, then a sharp re-bid back above the 50d. This is a confirmed uptrend in correction, not a trend break — yet.

Relative strength — rebased return

Note: No benchmark index data was fetched for this run (broad-market and Taiwan sector ETF series unavailable). On absolute terms Auras has returned +412% over the 3-year window, which dwarfs any plausible benchmark — but a clean relative-strength comparison cannot be drawn from in-run data.

The shape of the curve is informative even without a benchmark: two distinct bull thrusts (Feb–Apr 2024 and Sep–Nov 2025), each followed by a 25–35% retracement that did not break the broader uptrend. Auras is a momentum vehicle — it does not crawl higher, it accelerates and then digests.

Momentum — RSI and MACD

RSI: Current weekly print 49.1 — squarely neutral. But the bigger story is that since June 2025 RSI has cycled in a 38–80 range with each peak progressively lower (80 in Sep-22, 74 in Nov-3, 71 in Feb-9, 63 in Apr-27 and May-4). That is a bearish divergence — price made comparable highs into Q1/Q2 2026 but RSI conviction is fading. Worth tracking, not yet decisive.

MACD: Histogram flipped negative again on the final week (May 11 print of −9.9), reversing a strong April surge (+24.9). The pattern through 2026 has been violent oscillation around zero — momentum is in chop, not in trend. Pair with the RSI fade: the near-term (1–3 month) momentum read is mildly negative, not bearish.

Volume, volatility, and sponsorship

The two largest volume events in Auras's history are not 2026 prints — they are 2023-03-22 (9.81× average, +7.6% close) and 2020-11-12 (7.81×, +9.96%). The 2023 event coincided with the public birth of the generative-AI infrastructure rally and marks the moment Auras transitioned from "Taiwan thermal-management mid-cap" to "AI server liquid-cooling play". No specific catalyst metadata is bundled with this dataset, but the spike sits within days of the broader Taiwan AI rally inflection.

More relevant to current positioning: weekly volume in 2026 has averaged 4.0M shares vs the 50-day average of ~5.1M, and last week printed only 2.6M. The recent rebound from $30.8 (late March) to $39.9 (late April) happened on lighter volume than the prior leg up to $45.7. That is a volume-non-confirmation of the bounce.

Realized vol sits at 69.1% annualized — above the p80 band of 59.3%, i.e., in the stressed regime. The pattern is striking: vol broke into stressed territory in early 2024 (the first AI-server rally), retraced through mid-2025, and has reclaimed the top decile through Q1/Q2 2026. This is not a digestion phase — the market is repricing the name every week. Combined with light volume on the recent bounce, this profile says the wider risk premium reflects uncertainty, not accumulation.

Institutional liquidity panel

Fund-capacity table

Liquidation runway

Execution-friction proxy: median daily price range is 5.4% over the trailing 60 days — high. For comparison, large-cap US peers trade in 1.5–2% ranges, and Asian AI mid-caps in 3–4%. A 5.4% daily range means any limit order risks being skipped, and any market order moves the print noticeably. Adjust expected entry/exit slippage upward by 30–50% versus a typical mid-cap.

The runway numbers are striking by Asian mid-cap standards: even a 2% issuer-level position ($68M) clears at 20% ADV in two trading days. A 0.5% position is essentially instant. Annual turnover at ~1,180% means the entire float trades roughly 12 times per year — this is a high-velocity name, dominated by short-horizon participants rather than buy-and-hold institutional sponsorship.

The largest position that clears in five days is 5.7% of market cap at 20% ADV, or 2.9% at the more conservative 10% ADV. For a typical AUM range, the practical answer: a 5% position can be built or exited within a week by funds up to roughly $3.9B at 20% ADV, or $1.9B at 10% ADV. Capacity is not the question. Slippage discipline is.

Technical scorecard and stance

Stance — neutral with a bullish tilt on a 3-to-6 month horizon. The long-term uptrend has not broken (price above 50d above 200d, golden cross intact, 1Y return +110%), but near-term evidence has softened materially: MACD just flipped negative again, RSI is putting in lower peaks while price tests higher levels, and the recent bounce came on lighter volume than the leg it is trying to recapture. Volatility in the top decile means any wrong-footed entry will hurt fast.

Two specific price levels that would change the view. A weekly close above $40.95 — about 1 ATR ($2.34) over the 50-day — would clear the recent congestion and put the $45.7 all-time high back in play; that is the bullish trigger. A daily close below $36.33 (the 50-day SMA) would lose the near-term trend and open a re-test of the 200-day at $32.12; that is the bearish invalidation. Until one of those triggers prints, this is a "watch, do not size up" tape.

Liquidity is not the constraint. Funds up to ≈ $3.9B can take a 5% position within a five-day execution window at 20% ADV. The constraint is execution friction and volatility regime, which favors building slowly over multiple weeks using a participation-of-volume schedule rather than block accumulation.